MacFadyen: The Long Look Ahead
November 2, 2009
It's about that time when everybody turns prognosticator and tries to guess what the New Year will bring. On a daily basis, I'm being sent pitches on new surveys or expert commentary looking ahead to 2010.
These usually start to flow into my inbox in early October, and probably won't abate until sometime in March. That equates to roughly half of the year in which people spend forecasting the 12 months that start with January.
It can seem like overkill. This is especially true this year, as the early returns so far are not uncovering any grand revelations.
Bankruptcies could climb; debt markets will remain challenged; PE firms will struggle; global M&A will be depressed. Someone please cue up the Jeff Buckley.
We can at least take solace in the fact that we're about as accurate with these forecasts as your average weatherman. Anyone remember Martin Halusa's prediction for a $100 billion private equity fund? Or David Rubenstein, who thought there would be an LBO of the same size? It's hard to believe, but this is where some thought the PE market was headed at the close of 2006
Right or wrong, at least we can have some fun scoring predictions three years from now.
It doesn't seem like a lot of people were able to really cash in on the hipster trend. In my old neighborhood in Brooklyn, nearly every corner had a used clothing store and random people would line the sidewalks selling irony, whether it took the form of old tapes or some late model chia pet. By and large, though, corporations didn't seem like they were really able to really capitalize on it.
Well PBR is apparently the exception. The New York Post is reporting that Pabst Brewing Company, which produces Pabst Blue Ribbon and other beers such as Schaefer, Stroh's and Colt 45, is on the block seeking around $300 million.
Here's my prediction. PBR gets sold to a smaller conglomerate. The new owners raise prices and the hipster set pays Budweiser prices for the swill. Either way, I'm hoping that the antitrust authorities don't step in. Because, do we really want to help this demographic?
I went to see Snoop Dogg Sunday night. I'm happy to report that he is not at all concerned about conspicuous consumption.
I can't vouch that the diamonds on his personalized mic were genuine, but he evidently does not share the same concerns as some bankers when it comes to flaunting wealth. Recession or not, he's still "Snoop, with the caviar," as far as I'm concerned.
Maybe Blankfein and Co. shouldn't bother with appearances and just relish their wealth. It's not as if anyone is fooled by their newfound chaste.
Over at Slate's Big Money blog, one small business owner is less than impressed with the government's efforts to help the little guy via the SBA program.
What the federal government can do for me is help fix the health insurance mess, which now looks like it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
Well said.
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