Revisiting the Refi Cliff
November 1, 2010
So Jon Stewart's "Rally to Restore Sanity" came and went this weekend. Based on the coverage, the media didn't exactly emerge unscathed.
Here's one of the more stinging quotes from Stewart's speech: "The press can hold its magnifying glass up to our problems, bringing them into focus, illuminating issues heretofore unseen. Or they can use that magnifying glass to light ants on fire, and then perhaps host a week of shows on the sudden, unexpected, dangerous flaming ant epidemic."
I don't think Stewart was taking aim at the financial press necessarily. With that said, I think we are all guilty, whether we realize it or not, of occasionally reporting on the "flaming ants" in our respective industries.
The so-called refinancing cliff comes to mind. The $800 billion of debt set to mature over the next five years represents both an impressive and intimidating number. A journalist is going to include it in their subtitles when they can, because in financial reporting, big numbers amount to "click bait."
In hindsight, though, the refi cliff is hardly as intimidating when it's offset against the nearly $1 trillion US corporations have sitting on their balance sheets or the $450 billion of equity PE firms have at their disposal. Throw in a robust high yield credit market at the upper end of the market and a recuperating leveraged loan environment, and the refi cliff suddenly goes from black diamond to blue square.
Dealogic reported this morning that the financial sponsor-backed loan volume has already reached $202 billion this year, with only a quarter going to new buyouts. Heck, even Univision was able to refinance and extend the maturities of most of its debt. It wasn't without some pain, but that refinancing alone accounted for nearly a percentage point of the $800 billion cliff and helped set right one of the more egregious deals from the bubble.
Few in the financial press would draw comparisons to Nancy Grace when it comes to reporting on the "flaming ants." Still, Stewart's rally was a good reminder that the real story usually lies in the context, and sometimes it can take a while for that to play out.
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