The PE Fantasy Draft
September 7, 2010
I used to be pretty good at fantasy football. These days, the job tends to get in the way. For the second time in a row, I’m a likely no show for the draft, scheduled for this Wednesday. My team will be picked as I toggle between copy editing and the Yahoo draft screen, and I’ll invariably have at least one atrocious selection. Last year, they were Matt Cassel and Eddie Royal.
Recognizing that I’d probably be better off picking a fantasy private equity team, I’m introducing my inaugural PE fantasy draft board.
My draft strategy always revolves around getting a stud running back who’ll take most of the carries. I mistakenly deviated from this strategy once, and ended up with Dante Culpepper in the first round, who was dropped after throwing eight interceptions with two fumbles in the first two games. After the first round, I’ll shift into an opportunistic approach, targeting the best talent available. And then I’ll close the draft with either the defense or kicker. For sake of consistency, I’ll use this same strategy in assembling my PE team.
I’m assuming for this PE draft that I have a mid-round pick. Schwarzman, Black and Kravis probably got snapped up early on, so the focus for me is on consistency. My gut tells me to go with Warren Hellman, but Wilbur Ross is still available and he’d be a good play in this market. The safe pick is Hellman, though, who has proven to be a workhorse type of back that regularly puts up sold numbers. It’s a pick I’m happy with.
In the second round, I’m thinking receiver. This is a position that I always put off until the later rounds and it burns me every year. Receivers tend to be tough positions to draft. They’re divas, so it’s easy to waste a pick on someone that either works their way into the doghouse or goes through the motions because they’re angry their coach shut down their Twitter page. Ron Burkle is a fit, but he moonlights more as an activist investor these days than as a true PE sponsor. In the same way I’m turned off by Ochocinco’s turn on Dancing with Stars, I’m taking a pass on Burkle. For my money, Justin Wender is a good pick in this spot. He’s the middle market’s Anquan Boldin. I’m not sure where he’ll end up ultimately, but I think he’s less risky than Burkle, with a higher ceiling.
In the third round, I’m going to pass again on quarterback. Value is available in the later rounds for that position; for the tight ends, the drop off between the good and mediocre occurs right around here. You need a player who has the fundamentals down so they’re not a liability on the line. Of course, you need a scorer too, who has the skills to put up the points. It’s not the flashiest position, but it can be a difference maker. Good tight ends also make plays happen. They’re usually a checkdown option for the quarterback. Leonard Green’s John Danhakl is my pick here. Typically fantasy football isn’t for stat geeks, but for the tight end position in particular you want to know if they’re getting downfield opportunities or putting up yards after catch. Leonard Green has been creative in putting deals together, whether it’s through a PIPE, a taking private or traditional LBO. The firm has also quietly overperformed, which makes this a good value pick.
For the quarterback, DNA is important. It’s why college football coaches tend to gravitate to recruits whose fathers coached them in high school. The Gores brothers are probably private equity’s version of the Mannings -- the question I’m faced with, though, is which one is Peyton and which one is Eli. For this I’d normally refer to the statistics, but in this case the numbers are pretty comparable. I’m going with another gut decision to back Tom Gores.
The kicker, while a later round selection, can also be a difference maker. Like the quarterback, DNA can be important here. The Gramatica brothers are a case in point. I also make this selection based on the franchise. You can have the best kicker in the world, and if their offense doesn’t get them into field goal position, they’re worthless. In this case it’s a toss-up between Advent’s Steve Tadler and his brother TA Associate’s Richard Tadler. But I’m also a traditionalist when it comes to kickers -- a foreign accent gives me more confidence that they won’t be psyched out by a 50 yarder with the game on the line. For that reason, the pick is Advent’s Tadler. He doesn’t have a foreign accent, but he spent a number of years in the UK overseeing the firm’s European operations. Also, Advent is a franchise that’s going to put up numbers, which makes Tadler a safe pick.
The defense also isn’t a throw-away pick even though I saved it for the later rounds. Defense in private equity is operational capabilities. I also want a unit that can score points. KPS Capital’s Michael Psaros is an easy pick for this slot. They’ve had four dividend recaps alone this year, which is the equivalent of a pick-six.
Of course, a fantasy draft isn’t complete without a sleeper pick. For that one, I’m taking a flyer on Eric Zinterhofer, the Apollo Management vet, who launched Searchlight Capital earlier this year.
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