Boom or Doom?
Mid market bankers on staying on top when the world is falling down.
October 31, 2008
Every down market usually has its perennial optimists, and this present cycle is no different. But I was shocked to discover recently that my own flesh and blood has taken a seat alongside this rosy and senseless league of cheerleaders.
My son has been roaming around the house, exclaiming “Boom!” at every chance he gets. This, despite the point that all economic indicators make it clear that another economic boom is quite a long way off. More disturbingly, I haven’t heard him even try to mutter “bust.” Granted, the guy is only 18 months old and “boom” is the only word he knows, but still.
In a desperate effort to talk some economic sense into the kid, I planned a family field trip to an art exhibit. Not just any art exhibit, but to a 1,500-pound ice sculpture of the single word “Economy”chiseled out of ice, and melting onto the streets of lower Manhattan. The exhibit, called “Main Street Meltdown,” is a pretty good economic forecast. Even the artists in this city seem to know finance.
The same day, I got on the horn and called up a banking exec who was among the recent casualties as the financial services sector consolidates. To my amazement, he was shockingly upbeat. He wouldn’t go so far as to exclaim, “Boom!” but he wasn’t too far from that either.
“The securitization and services has to be much more tightly linked to origination,” the exec told this reporter. Then he continued, “Management and regulators will quickly figure that out, and if those changes are made, I think the securitization market will bounce back pretty quickly.”
How quickly does he consider to be “pretty quickly?” Within 2009, he estimated.
If he’s right, it would mean that credit could return in the next 12 months, which would allow players in the M&A market to emerge largely unscathed. It also presents a bullish case for the boutique banks that have the infrastructure and willingness to grow to move ahead with those plans and capitalize on the slowdown.
This is particularly true for firms that make an effort to recruit top talent during this period. Gregory Mark Hill, Trenwith Asia’s chief executive, said recently, “It’s little bit of musical chairs. When the music stops, where are people going to be at?”
With all of the noise flooding the marketplace today, the idea that we may see such a comfy recovery within a year is increasingly a minority opinion, but at least I’m glad to know that my 18-month-old isn’t the only one who takes that position.
In case you’re wondering what lessons were learned at the ice sculpture, by the time I arrived, there was nary a puddle left on the spot. Things melt fast around here. Let’s hope the real economy doesn’t follow suit.
11 Comments
More disturbingly, I haven't heard him even try to mutter "bust." Granted, the guy is only 18 months old and "boom" is the only word he knows, but still. Frisurentrends
Posted by: aguilar p | February 25, 2012 3:47 AM
To my amazement, he was shockingly upbeat. He wouldn't go so far as to exclaim, "Boom!" but he wasn't too far from that either. Boarding School
Posted by: aguilar p | February 24, 2012 12:53 PM
Excellent work! This is the type of information that should be shared around social networking sites. Pamela Dickerson
Posted by: Pamela D | February 23, 2012 2:27 AM
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information.
Pamela Dickerson
Posted by: Pamela D | February 23, 2012 2:26 AM
The down market is could sometimes become doom. even if the market is down, we should not lose hope as it can rise any moment. The ups and downs of the market are very random and unpredictable. The ups and downs of the market are very random and paroxetine dosage unpredictable. Thanks for this wonderful post. It was very interesting.
Affordable Suit
Posted by: Affordable S | February 21, 2012 3:31 AM
The ups and downs of the market are very random and paroxetine dosage unpredictable. Thanks for this wonderful post. It was very interesting.
Posted by: keeth k | February 8, 2012 4:10 AM
I guess this information is a necessary evil of the modern age and it has definitely opened newer and brighter vistas in the realm of health information. When it comes to health information the sources used to achieve the objective should be highly user friendly and should provide a robust structure of highly High Heels
Posted by: Abraham J | February 6, 2012 6:20 AM
coach outlet online coach outlet louis vuitton uk louis vuitton coach outlet online coach factory outlet coach outlet coach outlet store online louis vuitton sale louis vuitton outlet coach factory outlet coach factory online coach factory outlet coach factory outlet online louis vuitton uk louis vuitton coach outlet online coach outlet coach outlet store coach outlet store online coach bags coach outlet store coach outlet coach outlet store online hermes birkin hermes bags gucci uk gucci uk sale louis vuitton outlet louis vuitton bags
Posted by: CHEN M | January 14, 2012 2:21 AM
More fundamental from the miners' perspective is that the tax will apply on existing operations, rather than just the new ones.compact refrigerator
Posted by: David M | August 2, 2011 1:00 AM
I'm talking of the "Boom" pattern, the most recent notable example of which is world-wide economy. Although I don't personally recall any other recessions, largely because I wasn't around for them, I am all too familiar with the Wall Street Crash, and the Great Depression ,and other such terms bandied about in a year eleven history class.
Posted by: Peter F | July 28, 2011 5:39 AM
The down market is could sometimes become doom. even if the market is down, we should not lose hope as it can rise any moment. The ups and downs of the market are very random and unpredictable. Thanks for this wonderful post. It was very interesting. Vista College
Posted by: Michael W | July 26, 2011 12:47 AM
Add Your Comments...
Already Registered?
If you have already registered to Money Management Executive, please use the form below to login. When completed you will immeditely be directed to post a comment.
Not Registered?
You must be registered to post a comment. Click here to register.